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2019 FinTech Trends Meetup

The 2019 FinTech trends meetup I attended in January highlights how hot FinTech is. According to an Accenture report, global FinTech investment hit $55 Billion worldwide. That is up double from last year’s total.

The 2019 FinTech trends meetup I attended in January highlights how hot FinTech is. According to an Accenture report, global FinTech investment hit $55 Billion worldwide. That is up double from last year’s total. 

So what exactly is FinTech and what are the important trends to understand besides the rise in investment dollars?

What is FinTech?

FinTech is a category of technology companies that focus on providing technology solutions in the banking, investment, and financial sector. For example, Robinhood is a FinTech company that is a digital trading platform, which removes the fees for basic stock trading. It is disrupting the entrenched investment banks that charge brokerage fees for stock trading. 

FinTech is a sector that is growing rapidly with heavy investment from Venture Capital (VC), Private Equity (PE), and Corporate VC/PE. The types of companies range from banking and investment platforms to payment verification platforms (i.e. Stripe) to, yes, cryptocurrencies and blockchain.

woman making contactless payment with her phone

Oh like Uber?

Technology companies that are not considered FinTech include InstagramLyft, and Uber. While they are technology companies, they do not fall into the financial services sector. There are other categories of technology companies such as MarTech (marketing), AdTech (advertising), HR Tech (Human Resources), InsurTech (insurance), AgTech (Agriculture), etc. Essentially, the trend is technology is really starting to be a key driver of innovation in all industries.

Back to the 2019 FinTech trends meetup…

The 2019 FinTech trends meetup I attended in NYC was through Empire Startups and hosted by Latham & Watkins. The individuals on the panel included Perry Rahbar, founder & CEO of dv01Luan Cox, Founder & CEO of FinMkt; Jon Stevenson, head of investments at MoneyLion; and Adam Grealish, director of investments at Betterment. The moderator was Doug Nelson, from Long Ridge Equity Partners.

The panel conversation ranged from very technical discussions about business and financial models (yawn) to the future of the industry. Within the macro trends like the larger flow of capital into FinTech, there were some not so obvious trends.

2019 fintech trends meetup audience sitting

1. Average Retail Investor is Getting Smarter

In 2019 the average investor is smarter and savvier than in the past. So what has changed? Access to information with the internet has really expanded. People are able to more easily educate themselves. Additionally, financial content has gotten better. Every player in the financial sector is producing higher quality content and the best content producers are meeting people where they are at with easier to digest information.

2. The number of accounts opened has increased with digital first platforms

The second 2019 FinTech trend is that the sheer number of accounts has risen drastically as a result of digital platforms. Consumers are now able to open accounts with greater ease than ever before. I have many accounts as it is easy to split my money into separate accounts for different purposes. I have accounts dedicated to family savings, travel, business investing, emergency, retirement, and brokerage. Digital banking has made it easier than ever to create new accounts and reduced the cost to institutions to maintain those accounts.

3. A ton of new FinTechs

As the momentum builds in FinTech, more new companies continue to be created. The cycle of rising investment plus the entry of corporate investment funds (big banks now have their own investment arms) has led to more new companies. That being said there is a trend towards consolidation as these smaller FinTechs are bought up once they have a proven track record. More new startups and as companies mature there is a consolidation that is occurring.

4. Banks are making bets on FinTechs that can prove they will be around

Traditional banks do not want to end up like Blockbuster or ToysRUs. As such, they are both acquiring and investing in promising FinTechs as both a hedge (to ensure they don’t get disrupted) and as a growth engine. The trailblazers in the FinTech space have helped pave the way for other FinTech companies and banks do not want to be left behind.

QR code displaying bitcoin wallet

So should I buy bitcoin? It’s the only reason I read this 2019 FinTech trends article…

The 2019 FinTech trends panel didn’t touch on cryptocurrency and blockchain. JP Morgan Chase announced a new internal cryptocurrency that is pegged to the dollar. The goal is to enable more immediate transactions for their wholesale corporate customers. Most people agree that blockchain will have a profound impact on the long-term. Yet, it is difficult to say which cryptocurrencies will become widely adopted. 

Ben Horowitz of Andreessen Horowitz a major VC firm has made a lot of bets on blockchain technology. On the NPR Planet Money Podcasthe made a bet in 2014 about the future adoption of Bitcoin. While he lost the bet, his firm made lots of money investing in blockchain companies. He himself isn’t so sure about bitcoin being the winner but is putting his money where his mouth is when it comes to the rise of crypto long-term.

In conclusion, the 2019 FinTech trends meetup highlighted both macro trends and more nuanced changes for consumers. If you haven’t already noticed FinTech companies creeping into your daily life, it is likely you will soon. I encourage you to go find your own FinTech trends meetup and learn about how the industry is evolving in 2019.

People Networking after the 2019 fintech trends meetup

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The Wisdom of Winnie the Pooh

If you were like me you grew up with the wisdom of Winnie the Pooh. The loveable hungry bear who lives in the hundred-acre wood. The bear who gets into all sorts of situations with his good friend Christopher Robin. Recently, there have been many movies made featuring the wise Pooh bear. There’s the story behind the creation of Winnie the Pooh and the story of Pooh visiting an older Christopher Robin.

There are plenty of wise stories in Winnie the Pooh. The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff highlights the overlap in ancient Chinese philosophy. For a children’s story, Winnie the Pooh has a lot of hidden wisdom. A humble bear of not much brain manages to teach wonderful life lessons about how to keep calm in a variety of situations and to remain curious.

The World of Pooh Book surrounded by flowers

Bisy Backson

One quote that really encompasses the wisdom of Winnie the Pooh is in a chapter titled Bisy Backson. The quote is about time. We work long days to be able to afford machines and things in our lives that “save time.”

The main problem with this great obsession for Saving Time is very simple: you can’t Save time. You can only spend it. But you can spend it wisely or foolishly. The Bisy Backson has practically no time at all, because he’s too busy wasting it by trying to save it. And by trying to save every bit of it, he ends up wasting the whole thing.

The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff, Page 108

This idea really resonated with me as someone that grew up in a family that values hard work. I can remember extreme examples in my childhood of my parents struggle with time working vs. just spending time being. The wisdom of Winnie the Pooh shows this contradiction.

A black and white sketch of Pooh bear

Don’t be afraid to slow down

In the Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, Rabbit is an extreme characterization of working hard without slowing down. In the stories, if Rabbit just paused for a moment Rabbit would’ve seen that what he was looking for was right in front of him. Instead, Rabbit runs from place to place and missing what he was really looking for.

I find that I fall squarely into this camp. I easily fall into the trap of constantly working or doing something “productive” in order to accomplish a greater task. I’ve found this to often be counterproductive whereby I don’t zoom out to focus on the bigger picture. The Bisy Backson is prevalent in US culture. The wise Winnie the Pooh can help shed light on how to prioritize the most important things to help us shift away from this cultural trap of always be working.

Sketch of Christopher Robin & Pooh Bear sitting back to back

If you grew up with Winnie the Pooh, then you may already be familiar with the wisdom at the heart of this loveable character. My advice is to maybe follow the footsteps of a bear with a honey jar stuck to his nose.

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2019 Goals Progress Report: January

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2019 Goals Progress Report

Each month, I’m going to provide a monthly 2019 goals progress report on how I’m tracking to my yearly, monthly and daily goals. I’ve learned the importance of not just setting a SMART goal or a vision, but actually taking tangible steps to achieve those goals. Without action, your goals are merely wishes.

The most difficult part is accountability. As such this series of monthly progress reports will create accountability and a launch point for discussion. I hope that these goal progress reports will provide value to you. As I am certain, going through this exercise will be valuable for me.

Hand with a pink sticky note that says "set goals"

2019 Goals

Before jumping into the first 2019 goals progress report, below are 4 key goals I am focusing on this year.

  1. Acquire 4 more rental units located in Alabama or Florida
  2. Read 36 books this year
  3. Limit my alcohol consumption to an average of 1 day of drinking per week
  4. Generate through a side business $128k/month before year end

I went through an exercise with one of my friends Aditya Mahara to write out not just these yearly goals, but what the next 3 and 5 year goals look like. The idea is to have your 2019 goals ultimately tie back to your longer-term goals and visions. Each set of yearly goals should build on each other. Just like when you are a baby, you first have to crawl before you can walk and eventually run.

woman holding sparkler in front of her with two hands

January – 2019 Goals Progress Report

As a way to keep track of the daily activities that track to my goals, I have created a Google Sheet calendar to log progress. Through this document, I am able to track what is working and what isn’t. Through this data gathering exercise, I can start to see trends and which goals I am not making progress. As the famous management saying goes “what gets measured gets done.”

As of January I have officially:

  1. Analyzed 25 properties, but have not made any official offers
  2. Read 2 of 36 books
    1. The Life of Benjamin Franklin
    2. The $100 Startup
  3. Drank 8 days over the course of 5 weeks for an average of 1.6 drinking days per week
  4. Formulated a business plan for a 4-week running program and supplement business. Currently, I have the website mostly built and products created. Focusing on design and publishing in order to launch. Currently generating $0/month

As you can tell I have some work I need to do on my goals. Having gone through the exercise of creating a goals progress report I have a baseline to measure progress. I will continue to update my progress here monthly and provide insights into what is working and what challenges I face.

Balloons in the shape of 2019 in front of table with champagne bottles

My friend (who I mentioned earlier) and I are going to meet monthly to review these goals and talk about where we need support. Having an accountability buddy helped me train for my first marathon and I believe has value beyond sports.

How are you tracking your 2019 goal progress?

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Factfulness – the art of fact-based decision making

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Factfulness – Art of Fact-Based Decision Making

The art of fact-based decision making is crucial in today’s world. Whether it is in business or your personal life data and facts are necessary to support quality decisions. The issue is that most people have a skewed outdated worldview. Hans Rosling’s book Factfulness outlines how the world is actually a much better place than it was in the past. Rosling provides data that shows this change throughout time and how more often than not we are wrong about the state of the world.

The importance of fact-based decision making is logical. As a result, we have seen the rise of big data, AI, and analytics. Companies, schools, governments, etc. are looking to better understand and measure key metrics. These metrics allow them to understand the current state and make fact-based decisions on how to improve. The mantra I’ve heard across most corporations, consultancies, and businesses is the classic “we are a data-driven company.”

Globe on office table with many artifacts

Outdated world views and the need for fact-based decision making

Despite organizations focus on making data-driven decisions, the basic changes happening in the world are not understood. Hans Rosling discusses the bias he has seen towards an outdated worldview from even the most educated world leaders. From global poverty levels to population statistics to world health and education data the fact is most of the world is missing out on what progress has been made.

We teach kids history and give them a basic understanding of the world in school. Yet as we get older we do not regularly update our worldview on how the world has changed. It leads to an unconscious bias towards a more negative view of the world. The media focus on extreme cases that grab our attention. This leads us to miss out on major positive trends that are simply not as exciting news stories. Thus we are unaware of great social and economic progress including the decline in global extreme poverty levels and the decrease in the disparity between boys and girls years of schooling. Fact-based decision making can only transpire if we are up to date on global trends.

Fact-based decision making - Hans Rosling on-stage presenting one of his famous bubble graphs

Balancing progress with current challenges

Public data shows the world has gotten better. Yet there is still no arguing that there is more that needs to be done. Any level of extreme poverty is unacceptable and disparity among boys and girls level of education and rights is also unacceptable. We have to simultaneously recognize that the world has improved. Yet there are still major challenges we have to continue to address.

Things are both better and still bad. An example is if I break my foot playing soccer and have to have surgery. After surgery, I am in a cast for a few weeks. Upon my next visit, the doctor removes the cast and gives me a walking boot. In this instance, you can see how my foot has healed, yet I am still not at full strength. Thus we can have progressed while we still face challenges.

Photographer taking a photo of a city scene reflected perfectly in a puddle

So What?

When it comes to fact-based decision making be sure to update your worldview regularly. Understand that things change and the data to see those changes exists. Factfulness outlines 10 rules of thumb you can use to ensure you don’t make decisions based on an outdated world view. By not understanding or addressing these challenges in our thinking seriously puts us, our companies, and our governments at risk of making poor decisions. Fact-based decision making goes beyond the data and metrics relevant to your own organization, but to the world in general. I recommend you spend time to understand how the world has changed and consider giving Factfulness a read or watching one of Hans Ted Talks. I’m sure you’ll recognize his famous bubble charts highlighting publically available data.

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Growth Hacking Tools for Startups

Search engine optimization (SEO), pay per click (PPC), social media advertising, influencer marketing, affiliate marketing, public relations (PR), analyst relations (AR), native content, sponsored content, podcast advertising, banner ads… the list of growth hacking tools for startups goes on and on.

Back of man's head and shoulders looking up at tall buildings

As an entrepreneur or wantrapreneur growth hacking can be an overwhelming subject to wrap your head around. Success whether you are bootstrapped (self-funded) or working with outside investors, growth is often the lifeblood of your company. The future depends on increasing your customer base, user base, or increasing profits.

The growth hacking tools right for your startup will depend on your industry, product, goals, and how much money you have to invest in growth. To better understand growth hacking I attended a growth hacking meetup in NYC that featured 4 marketing leaders from startups in a variety of industries on their successful strategies. Stacklist organized and hosted the event which was located at Alley Chelsea. Gabby Slome from Ollie – a subscription premium dog food brand, Sam Viskovich from Reonomy – a commercial real estate data platform, Jim Shook from Payability – a FinTech company supporting e-commerce sellers, and Nilton Duque from Cleanly – an on-demand dry cleaning and laundry service.

The Key Growth Hacking Tools for Startups

The panel covered strategies ranging from utilizing guerilla marketing, social media and the free press – all the free resources. To how to optimize content for SEO. enabling influencers and paid social media advertising. While the specifics for each strategy deserve their own deep dive some key takeaways for early-stage companies are:

Measure and track everything

If you don’t start tracking where you are spending your resources and where your growth is coming from it will be very difficult to replicate that success. If you can’t afford software come up with systems for inputting data into an excel spreadsheet to start. First and foremost before doing anything track your activity and the results

Someone picking up a label reading success

Pick one growth hacking channel to start

If you have limited resources it is better to pick one avenue and really go deep then to sprinkle those resources thinly over multiple. If you can get really good at one growth hacking strategy you’ll be able to learn and iterate quickly. Focusing on influencers, for example, you’ll be able to identify which tier gives you the best results and what type of audience they have.

High intent traffic is better than a lot of generic traffic

When it comes to early marketing and growth it is important to target more profitable and higher converting audiences. Targeting 500 people and having 200 converts is more effective than targeting 1,000 and having 300 people convert. Being focused is an advantage and assuming you have a great product and great customer experience those high converting audiences will spread the word about your company.

Growth Hacking tools for startups key is video

Invest in Video as One of Your Marketing Tools

Young people are spending a tremendous amount of time on Youtube and other video platforms. You don’t have to have a fancy studio or camera. In fact, often times the selfie phone videos are the most effective. With the amount of content out there ensure the first 5 seconds your video will capture attention and tell a quality story.

There are many other growth hacking tools for startups to look into. But if you follow the above advice you are more likely to have success tapping into growth. I highly recommend attending local meetups and learning from people that are having success. Share your successful growth hacking tools and tips below!

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$100 Startup – Starting a Successful Business

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The $100 Startup – Starting a Successful Business

Starting a successful business is a dream of many entrepreneurs and wantrapreneurs. Building a company of your own that provides value to others and pays you at the same time… what is not to like? Yet most people dream of starting businesses versus actually going out and doing it.

Questions like where do I get the money? Where do I get the time? Can I actually do this? Often stop people right from the start. In The $100 Startup, Chris Guillebeau lays out a path for starting a successful business to live on your terms. The key motivation behind Guillebeau’s advice is providing people with freedom.

man dreaming of starting a successful business at coffee shop

What’s the first step to starting a successful business?

In the book, Guillebeau lays out how to home in on an idea evaluating factors such as the impact on customers, effort to start the business, profitability, and vision to help narrow your focus. I’ve now done this exercise twice this week. First with my girlfriend and then with a small group of friends who are planning to travel the world soon. They want to build a successful business that can be managed while they travel and produces an income allowing them to travel without worries.

This exercise helped us organize our thoughts and focus in on the most promising ideas from a list of possibilities.

Then what?

Now with the most promising business ideas, we can dive into a deeper planning stage. There are 1-page business plans and marketing strategies that help to pave a path forward for you to pursue starting the most successful business.

One of the ideas we came up with was a personal finance curriculum for middle school and high school students. This is an area that overlaps a couple of our skill areas and combines our passions. As the only grandchild on both sides of the family, there is a lot of responsibility on my shoulders. It is very important that I have a strong financial base in order to support my family and family in the future. For my girlfriend, she has a similar motivation being an only child and experiencing a huge hit to her credit score due to a lack of her graduate school & creditors not knowing she was still in school.

While it is in the early stages, our visions align around the importance of financial literacy being taught in the education system. The $100 Startup’s guide has helped begin to tease out how building this curriculum could have a huge impact on kids while also being a promising successful business opportunity.

students sitting n a classroom listening to a teacher present

How can I get started on starting a successful business today?

The first step to starting a successful business is understanding the why behind wanting to build a business and what type of business fits into that why. The $100 Startup is about building “micro-businesses” that provide from $50,000 to a few hundred thousand. His philosophy is focusing on giving people the freedom that comes with starting a successful business that aligns with your life’s vision/mission. He is not rah-rah about following your passion. Rather pragmatic about finding something that provides an impact on customers and compliments both your skill set and ideal lifestyle.

As a next step, I recommend reading the book or visiting The $100 Startup website. The website has resources that will help you organize your business idea, strategy, and launch plan. Don’t get caught in your own head, but actually get started on building your business. Talk to your friends or family about what you want to do. One of the most fun and creative ways to get started is bounce ideas off of others.

Of course, you can also comment and discuss with me on the socials. Good luck starting a successful business… you can do it!

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The Life of Benjamin Franklin

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The Life of Benjamin Franklin

Benjamin Franklin or Thomas Jefferson? In school, I used to get the two confused as to who accomplished what. Who was it that ran around a lightning storm with a kite? And which one authored the Declaration of Independence?

Black and white drawing of Benjamin Franklin & son William Flying a Kite in Lightening Storm

As a fan of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger I learned that one of Charlie’s heroes is Benjamin Franklin. I read Poor Charlie’s Almanack which is based on Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanack that followed a fictional middle-class tradesman discuss the merits of hard work and frugality. After reading Munger’s ode to Poor Richard and visiting Philadelphia I picked up Walter Isaacson’s Biography of Benjamin Franklin.

The life of Benjamin Franklin

Franklin was born in Boston in colonial times at the start of the 18th century to a poor family. He apprenticed as a printer under his brother. Eventually moving to Philadelphia where he authored many articles, short stories, and pamphlets. As a businessman, he franchised print shops across the colonies and built a network of print shops.

Franklin had a thirst for knowledge and created philosophical societies, volunteer fire departments, and other knowledge-centric endeavors. Eventually, he retired from being a printer in his mid-40s. He struck a deal with his apprentice to continue to receive a portion of the prophets for years to come.

Painting of a Young Benjamin Franklin in a Fire Fighter Uniform

His focus then turned to politics where he spent 15 years in England representing the colonies. Early on Benjamin Franklin was loyal to the British Crown while denouncing parliament. Eventually, he saw that Britain would never give the colonies fair representation and became a supporter of the American Revolution. He helped edit portions of the Declaration of Independence which Thomas Jefferson authored.

During the war, Benjamin Franklin was the American representative to France. There he helped secure the alliance with France that ultimately led to the Americans winning their independence. Following the war, he then negotiated the peace treaty with Britain. Where he secured terms for the recognition of the new American state.

The Final Years of Benjamin Franklin

In his final years, he helped bridge the divide at the Constitutional convention. This resulted in the colonies forging a middle ground that ultimately formed the constitution. Benjamin Franklin’s ability to advocate for compromise, democracy, and put issues into perspective helped him shape 4 of the most important early documents in US history. Namely the Declaration of Independence, Alliance with France, Treaty with Britain, and the Constitution.

In his final years, Benjamin Franklin fought for the abolition of slavery. He hoped to create a program that would provide education, apprenticeships, and support to former slaves.

While Franklin’s life reads like a highlight real he had many flaws just as all people do. There were his promiscuous younger years which resulted in him fathering an illegitimate child. He was hardly a family man spending the last years of his wife’s life apart. As well as Franklin arguing for bad policies. But what Franklin excelled at was finding his way back to guiding principles. Unlike what we see in today’s politics Franklin was open to new ideas that may change his opinions.

Despite his flaws, Benjamin Franklin fought for a strong middle class advocating for hard work, frugality, and public works. He has inspired many others along the way through his curiosity, wisdom, and benevolence.

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6 Steps to Prepare for a Recession

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6 Steps to Prepare for a Recession in 2019

Below are the 6 steps to prepare for a recession in 2019. Last week I posted about 6 Tips for Real Estate Investing in 2019. As we enter the 11th year of economic expansion in the US I’m going to discuss some steps you can take to prepare for a recession.

For the past 5 years, people have been anticipating an economic downturn. Yet the economic growth engine has kept chugging along. Looking at some economic indicators like unemployment, job growth, and wage growth, these indicators are still showing strong growth numbers. In other areas of the economy such as debt- corporate, auto, and student loans, these indicators show some more worrying signs.

Prepared for a recession by tracking your performance

With the stage being set, are we headed for a recession in 2019? I have no clue. What I do know is there are certain steps you can take to prepare for a recession just in case. Outlined below are 6 steps from J Scott who recently discussed on the Bigger Pockets podcast how you can prepare for a recession in 2019.

The 6 Steps to Prepare for a Recession

1. Hoard Cash

In this economy with unemployment at its lowest levels in years and wages starting to pick up, it is important that you are saving a higher portion of your income. Curb superfluous expenses that don’t bring value to your life and be smart with your savings rate. Be prepared with cash on hand come recession time.

2. Open Credit Lines

One of the best times to invest was the first few years following the Great Recession. The issue was if you didn’t have cash or access to credit in place it was nearly impossible to get. J Scott recommends requesting credit line increases on your credit cards (but don’t spend that extra credit!), secure a line of credit if you own a business, home, or perhaps even a personal line of credit. Make sure you aren’t having to pay exorbitant fees and only do so if it makes sense. When the recession comes and assets become undervalued you’ll be in a position to seize opportunities.

3. Improve Your Credit Score

This should always be a focus. First, if you aren’t monitoring your credit score currently most banks, credit cards, and personal finance apps offer free credit monitoring. I personally use Credit Karma a free app on my phone that is updated about once a week. It shows you your credit score and offers suggestions on how to improve. It is amazing how quickly you can improve your credit score even if it is already really high! I’m in the 800s currently. The first step is to learn your credit score and start taking small steps to improve it throughout 2019. When a recession hits lending tightens so if you prepare and improve your credit score now, you’ll be ahead of the game!

4. Determine The Worst Case Scenario

Take a look at your finances and even your employment. If a recession kicked-in next month would you be able to handle it? What if your 401k or retirement accounts dropped by 40% and you lost your job, would you be able to pay your rent/mortgage? If the answer is no it is important you start divesting or preparing for a worst-case scenario. While it may be painful to think about it is much less painful to plan when it is a hypothetical then when you see on the news that the large investment bank you work at just went out business.  *cough cough Lehman Brothers *

5. Change Short Term Debt to Long Term Debt

If you have loans that have variable interest rates or an adjustable rate loan now is a good time to lock in a long-term rate. During the last crisis, a large number of mortgage loans were adjustable rate loans that started out with low monthly payments and then jumped after a year or two. Once the crash occurred and home values dropped people weren’t able to refinance those loans. This lead to a large number of short sales and foreclosures. Don’t let that happen to you! Be proactive!

6. Don’t Chase Losses

This may be the hardest of the 6 to prepare for leading into a recession because it goes against our neurology as humans. People feel losses twice as hard as they do gains. Losing $100 in the stock market will hit you twice as hard as your excitement about making $100. When we start to enter a recession don’t keep putting money into a losing strategy. Cut your losses early if it is speculative. If you invested in say an S&P 500 index fund for the long-term don’t abandon your dollar cost averaging or long-term investment strategy. Try not to act emotionally and take a step back before making big changes to your investment strategy.

Back of man's head and shoulders looking up at tall buildings

If you follow these 6 steps to prepare for the next recession you’ll be ready to weather and perhaps even profit from the next downturn.

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6 Tips for Real Estate Investing in 2019

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6 Tips for Real Estate Investing in 2019

Happy 2019 everyone! What a wild 2018 it was for the markets with all of the volatility. If you’ve been watching your 401k, stocks were on a roller coaster ride in 2018. As we kick-off 2019 it doesn’t appear that the volatility will slow down between the trade war between the US & China heating up, slowing economy in China, the US not able to fund its own government and the Fed (US federal reserve bank who is in charge of US monetary policy – meaning how much paper money is in circulation & interest rates – which affect how much extra money you pay back on credit card balances, mortgage loans, etc.,). Even real estate prices have jumped dramatically since 2009.

Now with all of this madness going on the economic expansion moving into its 11th year… yeah, we’ve been on the up & up for that long… and the threat of a downturn what do you do as a real estate investor?

Real estate prices have been climbing as well and broadly speaking prices are back up near all-time highs. According to J Scott, there are 6 things you should consider when investing in real estate in this market.

So how do you make money in this market?

Real estate blueprint

1. Be certain of your numbers.

Make sure that if you are buying a fix & flip or a buy and hold that you get exact pricing from contractors for all repairs. Not just estimates based on what you did previously or what your cousin thinks. Get solid quotes to ensure you know exactly how much the deal will cost you.

2. Stay away from long rehabs.

Due to the change in the market where appreciation has leveled off, it is important you aren’t in a project too long. Because the longer the rehab project the more time something could go wrong in which case you may incur longer holding costs and are not be able to sell, rent, or refinance as you had hoped.

3. Have a backup strategy.

If you are planning on a fix & flip but buyers disappear before you are able to sell, have an alternative strategy. Real estate is wonderful in that you have options for what you can do with a property, but you have to make sure the deal makes sense if things don’t go according to plan. Consider renting out your flips and make sure the property will cash flow should your plan falter. If you were planning on a rental perhaps you look at a lease-option which will allow you to charge a higher rent and lock in a sales price if rental rates drop. Having options is crucial in any real estate deal.

4. Avoid thin deals.

Make sure you have a good margin of safety on all your deals. For example, if you think the market may correct by 20% you need to have at least that much profit built into the deal. It’s important to focus on the percentage of safety versus the dollar amount. A $30k margin of safety on a $100k ARV (30% of the after repair value) is not the same as a $30k margin of safety on a $300k ARV deal (10% of the after repair value).

5. Keep clear of leverage at all costs.

Scott advises this as you don’t want to get stuck with financing that you can’t afford. I’m not as adverse to leverage if it is long-term and the payments make sense on your Plans A, B, & C. You don’t want to get stuck with short-term debt should the market tank and capital dries up.

6. Stay away from high-end vacation rentals.

The last tip for real estate investing in 2019 is to avoid high-end vacation rentals. Airbnb is great and has opened up a  lot of opportunities. When there is an economic downturn people will likely cut out expensive vacations early on which will hurt you if you are positioned at the top of the market. This rule likely applies beyond just short-term rentals, but high-end luxury flips, houses, and apartments. Folks tend to downsize and curb back their spending on housing when times get tough. Being positioned in the middle of the market will afford you flexibility as those former luxury renters drop down into the mid-market.

2019 may be the beginning of an economic downturn or merely a blip as the economy surges on. Regardless J Scott’s advice will protect the downside while still being an active real estate investor. Happy 2019 everyone and happy investing!

Balloons in the shape of 2019 in front of table with champagne bottles

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Meditations

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Meditations

I finished Meditations by Marcus Aurelius a few days ago and have been reflecting on the Stoic ideals he discussed. Marcus Aurelius was a Roman Emperor who followed Stoic philosophy and wrote his own personal experience and take on the philosophy.

The Roman Coliseum - Marcus Aurelius the stoic who wrote meditations

What is the ancient art of Stoicism?

Stoicism is a philosophy that focuses on virtue as the primary link to happiness and that other emotions are only good or bad as they support virtue. Essentially Stoicism is a guide of personal ethics to dictate how one interacts and interprets the world around them.

Marcus Aurelius as an emperor did not think himself better because of his status, but only judged his happiness based on his actions. In so much as there are so many things we cannot control in life and our misaligned expectations can cause harm.

Aurelius’s Writings

A short but challenging read, Meditations is a personal journal that Aurelius wrote towards the end of his life. Translated from Medieval Greek it can be a challenge to read.

The writings do not read as a story, but more as a guide with ideas and concepts that standalone. These writings should be used more as reference material and you will find insights throughout the short read.

Mediations Wrap Up

In summary, if you are interested in philosophy and personal ethics then you will find value in Meditations. The ancient Stoics practiced different styles of philosophy. Similarly to the various denominations in Christianity, the ancient Stoics had differing interpretations. Marcus Aurelius’s Meditations will shed light on ideas that are just as relevant today as they were 2,000 years ago. Take time to process the concepts and reflect on how they may impact you.

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